173
FXUS61 KBUF 251828
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
228 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE TODAY, ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
CONCERT WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL BRING A CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN AN ADDED BOOST FROM SOME SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL
MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
TONIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR DRY WEATHER. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE WILL SEE ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW MAY NEGATE MUCH CLEARING OR ALLOW A LOW STRATUS DECK
TO FORM. THIS WILL IMPACT WHETHER WE SEE FOG FORMATION IN SPOTS AND
LOW TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE 'SPECTACULAR' WEATHER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARMER AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, COOLER NEAR THE LAKES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT DRIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
SHOWERS POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME GUIDANCE TRACKING THE SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA BY THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER SLOW MOVING
OCCLUDING LOW THAT WILL BE COME VERTICALLY STACKED DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY, BUT
COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THURSDAY, THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC, BUT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK DOWN BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TODAY, WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR WITHIN
SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR. GIVEN RECENT RAIN
AND LINGERING MOISTURE, THERE IS A 'MODERATE' CHANCE OF FOG AT KJHW
AND KART AFTER 06Z, IF SKIES CLEAR AND THEN REMAIN CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY, WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 10 TO 15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS AND PRODUCE A
MODERATE CHOP ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LESS WAVE ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/EAJ
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