119
FXUS61 KBUF 260719
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
319 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING IS RIDGING EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES PROMOTING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING
THE RETURN FOR SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING IS RIDGING EAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVERHEAD, EXPECT WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER TODAY. HIGHS WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY. WHILE MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL HAVE SPECTACULAR WEATHER FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY, LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS WILL PETER
OUT AND ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL REGION WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL
TUMBLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AREAWIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES.
OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END MIDWEEK. A MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT AND PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST OF THE RAIN
MAY REACH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
WESTERN NY, WITH THE LOWEST AND LATEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HEIGHT
FALLS AND DPVA GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT BY ANY
MEANS, WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME EXPECTED. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
RAIN, MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PEAK OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
AGAIN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER EXTENDED STRETCH
OF UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER. THAT SAID, RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS
WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES
NOT QUITE AS COOL.
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL OPEN UP INTO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, CROSSING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES SUPPORTING
ONGOING RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST US.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. AS OF 06Z, NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING FOG/LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ALONG LOW ELEVATION WEST OF THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS THE
RIVER VALLEY OF THE ALLEGHENY RIVER. EXPANDING FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY SPILL INTO KART AND KJHW CAUSING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DROP
DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR.
FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, ALLOWING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER
A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END IN THE EVENING
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR. INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY, SUPPORTING WEAK WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES.
HOWEVER, DIURNAL LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TUESDAY TO FRESHENING
SOUTHEASTERLIES WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE ELEVATED WAVES INTO THE CANADIAN
WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
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