364
FXUS61 KBUF 261644
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1244 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNSETTLE WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUN FILLED SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FUEL SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU, WITH A CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.
TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVER SLOWLY SLIDE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. AGAIN...THERE WILL BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS.
WHILE EXITING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER FOR ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END MIDWEEK. A MID
LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT AND PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST OF THE RAIN MAY REACH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS WESTERN NY, WITH THE LOWEST AND
LATEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HEIGHT
FALLS AND DPVA GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT BY ANY
MEANS, WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME EXPECTED. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
RAIN, MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PEAK OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
AGAIN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER EXTENDED STRETCH
OF UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER. THAT SAID, RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS
WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES
NOT QUITE AS COOL.
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL OPEN UP INTO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, CROSSING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES SUPPORTING
ONGOING RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST US.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR ACROSS ALL FORECAST TERMINALS TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY,
LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTING KART.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...AGAIN THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SOME VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE S. TIER. THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW
AFTER 07Z. AGAIN...SOME STRATUS AND FOG MAY ALSO IMPACT KART, SAME
TIME FRAME.
TUESDAY...VFR WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION THROUGH
TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE ELEVATED WAVES INTO THE CANADIAN
WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/EAJ
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