114
FXUS61 KBUF 261754
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNSETTLE WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUN FILLED SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FUEL SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU, WITH A CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.
TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVER SLOWLY SLIDE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. AGAIN...THERE WILL BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS.
WHILE EXITING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER FOR ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL TRUDGE EASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS PERIOD. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL INITIALLY BE DISPLACED
FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, THOUGH AS IT TRAVERSES THE REGION, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED AND TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
NEUTRAL OR POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE. NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD IT WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTH
FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC.
THE MAIN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE AN INEVITABLE END TO
OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MOST AREAS AS
A SHIELD OF RAIN ATTENDANT TO A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS FEATURE LOOKS RATHER DRY AND SO EXPECTING LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS WNY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, THEN TO THE ENTIRE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST WEEK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SATURDAY, THEN SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE IN HOW EXACTLY THIS TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE DEPARTING LOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WHICH WILL
IMPACT FRONTAL TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS
BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE GENERAL
TROUGHING PATTERN IN PLACE AND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES TRACKING TOWARDS
THE REGION, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY BEING HIGHEST INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH AGAIN NOT AS COLD AS LAST WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY WARMING AGAIN BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR ACROSS ALL FORECAST TERMINALS TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY,
LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTING KART.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...AGAIN THERE MAY BE
SOME FOG ACROSS THE S. TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COULD
IMPACT KJHW AND KART AFTER 07Z. THAT SAID...THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON
'CLOUD' COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S. TIER. GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATE THERE OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION THROUGH
TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE ELEVATED WAVES INTO THE CANADIAN
WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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