803
FXUS61 KBUF 262339
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TUESDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THERE WILL BE SOME FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS.
WHILE EXITING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL TRUDGE EASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS PERIOD. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL INITIALLY BE DISPLACED
FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, THOUGH AS IT TRAVERSES THE REGION, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED AND TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
NEUTRAL OR POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE. NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD IT WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTH
FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC.
THE MAIN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE AN INEVITABLE END TO
OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MOST AREAS AS
A SHIELD OF RAIN ATTENDANT TO A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS FEATURE LOOKS RATHER DRY AND SO EXPECTING LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS WNY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, THEN TO THE ENTIRE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST WEEK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SATURDAY, THEN SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE IN HOW EXACTLY THIS TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE DEPARTING LOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WHICH WILL
IMPACT FRONTAL TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS
BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE GENERAL
TROUGHING PATTERN IN PLACE AND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES TRACKING TOWARDS
THE REGION, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY BEING HIGHEST INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH AGAIN NOT AS COLD AS LAST WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY WARMING AGAIN BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG ACROSS THE S. TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COULD IMPACT
KJHW AND KART AFTER 07Z. THAT SAID...THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON 'CLOUD'
COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S. TIER. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATE THERE OVERNIGHT.
VFR WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION THROUGH
TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT THE ELEVATED WAVES INTO THE CANADIAN
WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR/TMA
NEAR TERM...AR/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...AR
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