554
FXUS61 KBUF 270524
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
124 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER
TODAY, WITH HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS EACH DAY AS A DEEP TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FROM THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
EAST ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL NY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FROM NORTHWEST
ONTARIO PROVINCE TO OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST, MAINTAINING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF DENSE CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER. THE DAY TO DAY
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS TRENDING A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE TODAY. A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER.
TONIGHT, A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ADVANCE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL TRUDGE EASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS PERIOD. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL INITIALLY BE DISPLACED
FAR SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, THOUGH AS IT TRAVERSES THE REGION, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED AND TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
NEUTRAL OR POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE. NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD IT WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTH
FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC.
THE MAIN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE AN INEVITABLE END TO
OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MOST AREAS AS
A SHIELD OF RAIN ATTENDANT TO A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS FEATURE LOOKS RATHER DRY AND SO EXPECTING LESS IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS WNY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS
WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, THEN TO THE ENTIRE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST WEEK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SATURDAY, THEN SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE IN HOW EXACTLY THIS TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE DEPARTING LOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WHICH WILL
IMPACT FRONTAL TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS
BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE GENERAL
TROUGHING PATTERN IN PLACE AND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES TRACKING TOWARDS
THE REGION, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY BEING HIGHEST INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH AGAIN NOT AS COLD AS LAST WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY WARMING AGAIN BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND VFR TODAY, WITH A
SHIELD OF DENSE CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TO THICKEN AND LOWER
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL KEEP CIGS/VSBY VFR INITIALLY AS THE FIRST RAIN ARRIVES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION TODAY WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THURSDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES BY, BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
ERIE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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