495
FXUS61 KBUF 272346
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
746 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH REMAINING
MOSTLY DRY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ADVANCE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND LATER TONIGHT EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY. FURTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER WILL 'LIKELY' CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP-UP EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOWER. AS SUCH WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% CHC POP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SWATH OF RAIN. HIGH TEMPS THERE WILL POTENTIALLY TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH A RANGE OF
60S, EVEN UPPER 50S WHERE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
WE ENTER A FAMILIAR PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW AND CORRESPONDING TROUGH
MOVE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AT TIMES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST NOSES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A SWATH OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN NY WEDNESDAY EVENING TO NORTH-CENTRAL NY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN DURING
THIS TIME. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
OCCUR ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY WEDNESDAY EVENING, HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THURSDAY, WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS
WESTERN NY, HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO. RAIN IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHARPEN WHILE STAYING POSITIVELY
TILTED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-WEST LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
REGIONS OF ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LACKLUSTER. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY EVENING AND A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE MID-WESTERN
TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN TROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS COULD
BREAKOUT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AND LOW ARE
PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A
WARMER AND DRIER PERIOD FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
RIGHT OVERHEAD SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE GREATER CHANCE IS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DRIER, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BECOME ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AREAWIDE VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THICK
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS FROM KBUF NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT.
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MAINLY MVFR FROM KROC WESTWARD, WITH AREAS
OF IFR IN THE SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW). FURTHER EAST MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THOUGH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP NORTH OF KFZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DETERIORATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR AND
AREAS OF LIFR. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN NY LATE IN
THE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODEST
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THURSDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES BY, BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
ERIE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR/PP
NEAR TERM...AR/PP
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/PP
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