752
FXUS61 KBUF 280622
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLIDING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A
SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE OUT A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS OUR REGION AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH SOME
TEMPORARY DRYING ALOFT RESULTING IN SKIES LARGELY CLEARING OUT FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIER. AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY EDGE IN OUR DIRECTION...BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BACK TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH A LOW-
END CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE PA BORDER TOWARD DAYBREAK.
AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THIS PERIOD...A BROAD...CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
OPEN UP INTO MORE OF A BROAD...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...WITH AN EMBEDDED
LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE ATTENDANT
DOUBLE-BARRELLED SURFACE LOW DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
CAROLINAS WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE CONNECTING SURFACE TROUGH ROUGHLY BISECTING OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WORKING ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE
RAIN LASTING BETWEEN 12-18 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A
HALF OF AN INCH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO A HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN THEN
TENDING TO TAPER OFF TO SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS WNY LATER
TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT.
IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHER-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE KEPT SOME LOWER-END CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THIS
AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE...THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A DECENT SW-NE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY...WITH THESE RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S WILL THEN FOLLOW TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
WE ENTER A FAMILIAR PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW AND CORRESPONDING TROUGH
MOVE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AT TIMES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST NOSES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A SWATH OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN NY WEDNESDAY EVENING TO NORTH-CENTRAL NY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN DURING
THIS TIME. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
OCCUR ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY WEDNESDAY EVENING, HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THURSDAY, WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS
WESTERN NY, HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO. RAIN IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHARPEN WHILE STAYING POSITIVELY
TILTED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-WEST LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
REGIONS OF ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LACKLUSTER. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY EVENING AND A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE MID-WESTERN
TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN TROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS COULD
BREAKOUT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AND LOW ARE
PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A
WARMER AND DRIER PERIOD FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
RIGHT OVERHEAD SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE GREATER CHANCE IS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DRIER, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BECOME ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS OUR REGION AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH SOME
TEMPORARY DRYING ALOFT RESULTING IN SKIES LARGELY CLEARING OUT FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIER. AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY EDGE IN OUR DIRECTION...BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BACK TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH A LOW-
END CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS/MVFR NEAR THE PA BORDER TOWARD DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
DOUBLE-BARRELLED LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CAROLINAS WILL THEN BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THIS PERIOD...WITH INCREASING/DEEPENING MOISTURE AND
LIFT LEADING TO THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS AND A SWATH OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THROUGH TODAY THIS WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR
FROM APPROXIMATELY A KROC-KIUA LINE SOUTHWESTWARD...ALONG WITH AREAS
OF EMBEDDED IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FAR INTERIOR FINGER LAKES. FURTHER NORTHEAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...THOUGH WEAK DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY
COULD HELP LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS/
STORMS AS FAR EAST AS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE TONIGHT...FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR AREAWIDE...WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR AFFECTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LATER ON TONIGHT...THE STEADIER RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...LINGERING RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TAPERING OFF TO
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE A MIX OF LIFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS THROUGH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE A BIT FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME TEMPORARILY CHOPPY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ERIE...
THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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