747
FXUS61 KBUF 281018
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
618 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLIDING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A
SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE OUT A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DURING THIS PERIOD A BROAD...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL OPEN UP INTO MORE OF A BROAD...
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...WITH AN EMBEDDED LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE ATTENDANT DOUBLE-BARRELLED SURFACE
LOW DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WILL ALSO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH THE CONNECTING
SURFACE TROUGH ROUGHLY BISECTING OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WORKING ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE
RAIN LASTING BETWEEN 12-18 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A
HALF OF AN INCH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO A HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN THEN
TENDING TO TAPER OFF TO SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS WNY LATER
TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT.
IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHER-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE KEPT SOME LOWER-END CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THIS
AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE...THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A DECENT SW-NE
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY...WITH THESE RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S WILL THEN FOLLOW TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY, A WEAKENING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL OPEN UP INTO A PROGRESSIVE WAVE, CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR
GEORGIAN BAY IN THE MORNING WILL ALSO DISSIPATE INTO A WEAK TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING OCCLUSION, SUPPORTED BY DPVA
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ACROSS WESTERN NY,
ANY MORNING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF, WITH A FEW MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. AN
EXPANDING STABLE LAKE SHADOW NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD KEEP THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARVE
OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST US AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED AND LACKING DEEP
MOISTURE, WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ANOTHER CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING, THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THE OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE AND
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PHASE, HELPING TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND
NEW ENGLAND. A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE EAST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A STRENGTHENING
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. INCREASING FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL BELOW AVERAGE
AGAIN AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE DIGGING
TROUGH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC, TAKING THE MAJORITY OF THE
ORGANIZED RAIN WITH IT. COOL AIR ALOFT AND ONE LAST SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL
QUICKLY FLIP, WITH A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ALONG WITH THE START OF
WHAT SHOULD BE A STOUT WARMING TREND. MID-SUMMER HEAT AND MODERATE
HUMIDITY WILL BUILD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DOUBLE-BARRELLED LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CAROLINAS WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING/DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT LEADING TO
THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS AND A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...THIS WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR FROM A ROUGH KROC-KIUA LINE SOUTHWESTWARD...ALONG
WITH AREAS OF EMBEDDED IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FAR INTERIOR FINGER LAKES. FURTHER NORTHEAST...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...THOUGH WEAK DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY COULD HELP LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS AS FAR EAST AS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING.
AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE TONIGHT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO MVFR AREAWIDE...WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF IFR/LIFR
AFFECTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LATER ON TONIGHT...THE STEADIER RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...LINGERING RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TAPERING OFF TO
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE A MIX OF LIFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS THROUGH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE A BIT FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME TEMPORARILY CHOPPY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ERIE...
THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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