707
FXUS61 KBUF 281808
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
208 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NY AND TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS EACH DAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A DOUBLE
BARRELED SURFACE LOW IS STRETCHED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS
SUPPORTED AN ARC OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY TODAY. THE AREA OF RAIN
WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NY, WHILE CONTINUING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY THIS EVENING. THE CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT-OFF TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. RAIN
WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FIRST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER,
THEN EXPAND NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
0.25-0.75" ACROSS WESTERN NY AND UP TO 0.25" EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE DOUBLE BARRELED LOW STRUCTURE WILL SEPARATE WITH THE WEAKER LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN NY WITH EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EAST OF LAKE
ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THURSDAY.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OUTSIDE OF LAKE SHADOWS, ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND WHERE LAKE CONVERGENCE FORMS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST AND DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY, A WEAKENING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL OPEN UP INTO A PROGRESSIVE WAVE, CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR
GEORGIAN BAY IN THE MORNING WILL ALSO DISSIPATE INTO A WEAK TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING OCCLUSION, SUPPORTED BY DPVA
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ACROSS WESTERN NY,
ANY MORNING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF, WITH A FEW MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. AN
EXPANDING STABLE LAKE SHADOW NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD KEEP THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARVE
OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST US AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED AND LACKING DEEP
MOISTURE, WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ANOTHER CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING, THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THE OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE AND
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PHASE, HELPING TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND
NEW ENGLAND. A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE EAST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A STRENGTHENING
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. INCREASING FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL BELOW AVERAGE
AGAIN AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE DIGGING
TROUGH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC, TAKING THE MAJORITY OF THE
ORGANIZED RAIN WITH IT. COOL AIR ALOFT AND ONE LAST SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL
QUICKLY FLIP, WITH A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ALONG WITH THE START OF
WHAT SHOULD BE A STOUT WARMING TREND. MID-SUMMER HEAT AND MODERATE
HUMIDITY WILL BUILD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NY THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL EXPAND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NY BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
NY TONIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING SHOWERY OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS WESTERN NY THURSDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF LAKE SHADOWS AND ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN OBSERVED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN
NY TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR TONIGHT AND IMPROVE TO VFR
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KJHW THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE A BIT
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME TEMPORARILY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS TO LAKE ERIE... THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES ARE
OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/JJR
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JJR
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