674
FXUS61 KBUF 290351
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1151 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND AN EARLIER
PASSING COLD FRONT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THE INCOMING DRIER AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP TO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT, AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES, AND 10
MPH OR LESS NEAR/OVER THE LAKES.
SUNDAY, THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA, THIS WILL
PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT LATE JUNE DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON MAXTS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR WNY AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME
AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTERING RIGHT OVER THE AREAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST. CLOUDS WIL INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND AS A WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NIGHT WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS FAR
WNY ONLY DOWN TO THE MID 60S AND COOL TO THE EAST WHERE LESS WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR, DOWN TO THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A WARM FRONT WILL RETURN TO OUR REGION MONDAY, WITH A NOTICEABLE
UPTICK IN HUMIDITY FOR WNY AS DEWPOINTS RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S.
A STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING WARMING
ALOFT WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +18C WILL MAKE FOR AN
UNPLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
AND LOWER 90S FOR THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES
REGION. HERE IS WHERE WE COULD ALSO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEED THE
MID 90S...IF A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCURS.
ADDITIONALLY ON THE PERIPHERY OF A LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION, DOWNWARD MOMENTUM WILL ALLOW FOR PORTIONS OF NIAGARA
AND ORLEANS COUNTY (SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO INFLUENCE) TO ALSO
PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE MID 90S.
THE 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, WITH THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
LIKELY TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN MAKER IN AN AIRMASS WITH PWATS
NEAR 2.00 INCHES, AS OPPOSED TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT. INSTABILITY
REMAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCAPE VALUES 1500 TO 2000 J/KG SUPPORTING
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS A CONVECTIVE AUGMENTED
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. A SLOWER
PASSAGE TO THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BUILD
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONGER BEFORE THE
FRONT SWEEPS STORMS AND MOISTURE EASTWARD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL TRIGGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BUT
LACKING MUCH INSTABILITY AND INITIALLY MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW...WITH THE FAVORED DAY FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION BEING THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW.
DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MORE TOLERABLE, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST TO
START THE WEEKEND, A MILDER AND MOISTER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH INCREASED RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LATE EVENING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BEHIND AN EARLIER PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA, INCLUDING AT JHW, BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EARLIER PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES
AS WELL SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, MAINLY FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, MAINLY
EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
RESULT IN WEAKENING WINDS OVERNIGHT. ANY REMAINING GUSTY WINDS
AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL COME DOWN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW A FOOT. WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK, THOUGH SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW
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