702
FXUS61 KBUF 290702
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
302 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND AN EARLIER
PASSING COLD FRONT. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THE INCOMING DRIER AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DIP TO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT, AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES, AND 10
MPH OR LESS NEAR/OVER THE LAKES.
TODAY, THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA, THIS WILL
PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT LATE JUNE DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON MAXTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WNY
AND LOW TO UPPER 70S FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOWER TD VALUES
WILL MAKE FOR A COMFORTABLE DAY. SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THE SFC HIGH
CENTERING RIGHT OVER THE AREAS.
TONIGHT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST.
CLOUDS WIL INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND AS A WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NIGHT WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS FAR
WNY ONLY DOWN TO THE MID 60S AND COOL TO THE EAST WHERE LESS WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR, DOWN TO THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. LINGERING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WITH THE HEAT INDEX TOPPING OUT NEAR
THE BOTTOM END OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95F) ACROSS THE WARMER LOW
ELEVATION COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
QUALITY FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH RAIN COVERAGE
PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING MAY LIMIT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY, WITH SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS SETTLING INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY, ALTHOUGH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGH MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
SATURDAY, THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATER
SATURDAY AS IT APPROACHES, WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING BY
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEHIND
AN EARLIER PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME STUBBORN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA,
INCLUDING AT JHW, BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE EARLIER PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES AS WELL
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, MAINLY FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, MAINLY
EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW A
FOOT. WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
MID WEEK, THOUGH SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW
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