597
FXUS61 KBUF 300712
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
312 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A DRY MORNING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION
PUSHES TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING. BUT THIS WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY
FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO, THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE HELPING
TO LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FOR SW NY, COOLING TO THE
UPPER 50S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TODAY, A WEAK 500 HPA WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY,
BUT FORCING IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT, AND THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE
WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE INCREASED MOISTURE WITH ONLY LITTLE
ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50" BY LATE MORNING AND CLOSE TO 2.00" BY MID
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL START PUSH INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPAND NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF WNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS WELL AS A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING
MECHANISMS TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE HIGH PWATS IN PLACE AND THE
FORCING FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
BE 1,000-2,000 J/KG, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
SHEAR ALOFT FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, BUT A FEW STRONG GUSTS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF SOME OF THE STORM CORES GET HIGH ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM TO THE LOW 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND I90, ALONG
WITH THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES AREAS BEING THE WARMEST.
COMBINED WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY, APPARENT (FEELS LIKE/HEAT INDEX)
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SOME AREAS. A
LIMITING FACTOR IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS, AND THE AIRMASS IN GENERAL IS A BIT
COOLER THAN LAST WEEKS AIRMASS WHERE TEMPERATURES EASILY HIT HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEAST AS
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AREA BY MID-EVENING, WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING A FAIR AMOUNT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY SOON AFTER.
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO DECREASE INSTABILITY AS THE
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST LATER IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS/STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. AFTER A FEW HOURS
OF DIMINISHED SHOWER COVERAGE, THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING, GENERALLY LOCATED OVER SW
ONTARIO. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS SYNOPTIC FORCING INCREASES. WHILE A HEAVIER SHOWER AND SOME
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY. MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL BE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY IN WESTERN NY, WITH A
DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND EXPANDING STABLE LAKE SHADOW
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TUESDAY EVENING WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT,
WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH A LESS HUMID
AIRMASS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE US LATER THIS WEEK AS A
RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION, AND A TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE THROUGH THE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES/LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWERS VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES.
HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLE FOR ALL TAF SITES SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO, LOWER CHANCE FOR KART.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA, ONCE AGAIN, HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL CAUSE REDUCTIONS TO
VSBYS AND CIGS DOWN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS,
EARLY VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH IFR
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER, INCLUDING JHW. HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY FOR ALL TAF SITES, TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, MAINLY
EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
A DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW A FOOT.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY, WITH
LIGHT WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO BACKING TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND
BEFORE THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT A 10 TO
15 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT CREATING A
CHOP ON THE WATERS.
THE WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK THOUGH SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...THOMAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page