587
FXUS61 KBUF 010920
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
520 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY,
WITH A FEW MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING DRY WEATHER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, AND NOTABLY
LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. FARTHER WEST, EXPECT JUST A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAS OF MARINE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
ADVECT INLAND EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID
MORNING. THIS MAY BRING SOME FOG FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE NEAR LAKE
ERIE IN BUFFALO, AND ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK/DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ORGANIZED RAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MOST OF
THE DAY, WITH MODEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE FROM
THE WEAK COLD FRONT, TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS, AND LAKE BREEZES
SUPPORTING A FEW MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME.
THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AFTER MID MORNING WILL BE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES, AND ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME HIGH-RES CAMS GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
A BAND OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKE
BREEZE WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
ROCHESTER.
THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES, WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
QUIET, SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOBBLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
MEASURE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THIS FEATURE THOUGH
POOR DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF ANY OTHER STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER AND/OR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION.
ONCE THE AXIS OF THE CLOSED LOW'S PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, A FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL ENSURE AREAWIDE
DRY WEATHER, LIGHT WINDS, AND FAIR HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE 4TH
OF JULY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS IN ITS WAKE AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SUBDUED TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME INFLUENCE FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FASTER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE OFFSHORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVECTS A
WARMER, MUGGIER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE MORE UNSTABLE SETUP
OVER THE REGION WILL MEAN THE RETURN OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S, AND ADDED HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS
COULD REACH THE LOW 90S.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VSBY. FARTHER WEST, JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NY. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL EXPAND OVER AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO
AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MID MORNING, WITH AREAS OF IFR.
THE LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY, LEAVING
MAINLY VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, FINGER LAKES, AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE MAY ALSO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KIAG TO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
KROC FOR A FEW HOURS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF THESE MATERIALIZE,
THEY MAY GET CLOSE TO KBUF BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, WITH CLEARING SKIES. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL BRING A
LIGHT CHOP TO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. SIMILAR WINDS AND A LIGHT
CHOP WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION FOR THE HOLIDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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