880
FXUS61 KBUF 072349
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER-SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN LATER ON IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGF COOLER.
MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ZONAL FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE
THE TROUGHING PATTERN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST, PASSING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE TRUDGING FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TRANSLATING THIS PATTERN DOWN TO THE SURFACE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER
TO PERSIST. MEANWHILE, TO THE SOUTH A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES, A WEAK WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER, AND ULTIMATELY ENSUING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THIS BEING SAID, WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA UNDER THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SPARK A RISK FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT TROUGH
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ONTARIO PROVINCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
OVERALL AFTER A DRY NIGHT FRIDAY, THE NEXT CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM WILL ARRIVE INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND LAST
INTO MONDAY. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY, SHOULD
MENTION THAT NO DAYS LOOK TO BE COMPLETE WASHOUTS. ADDITIONALLY,
WITH THE BRIEF RIDGE AND THE EXIT BRANCH OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AROUND THE TUG HILL THAT COULD
SEE KJHW AND KART DROP TO LIFR VISIBILITY/CEILING WITH MOIST LOW-
LEVELS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY OCCUR THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHILE REMAINING LIGHT TO MODEST LEVELS INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR/BROTHERS
MARINE...AR/JJR
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