020
FXUS61 KBUF 080613
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
STATE THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW LIGHT ECHOES SHOWING UP WITHIN
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, OTHERWISE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT BY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY, BUT STALL JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN FINGER
LAKES LOOKS TO BE AROUND 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OVERALL
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TROUGHY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LUMBER FROM THE MID-WEST TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. DAYTIME
HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH CONCENTRATION ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND THE TERRAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING BUT WEAK SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH MOVE
INTO THE LAKE ERIE REGION, WHILE WEAKENING AND SLOWING DOWN BY
THURSDAY. MODEST MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INLAND FROM THE LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MID-WEST WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A WARM FRONT
USHERS IN WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SPEED OF THE NEXT AIRMASS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION IS UNCERTAIN WHICH LEADS TO LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD
LEAD TO UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TERMINAL. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL
BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH VFR EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SUB-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...AR/JJR/TMA
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