035
FXUS61 KBUF 090616
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
216 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG (SOME
DENSE) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING, BEFORE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH STARTS TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. FOR THE MOST PART, TODAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE
BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, BUT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
CLOSER WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXIST TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES CLOSER AND A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES CLOSE TO THE REGION. MAY
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY WILL MOVE
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO QUEBEC
FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, HOWEVER BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME HEATING WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A BELT OF
25-30KT WESTERLY FLOW WILL ROUND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND EAST. SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND OR MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FLOW MAY
RESULT IN FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MSLP ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEST MOISTURE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE
SOUTH, SO WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY, CAN'T RULE
OUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING PEAK HEATING, MAINLY NEAR THE
PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY. INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
SUNDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING TROUGH FLATTENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. ZONAL
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE WORK WEEK WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH
LOW STRATUS AND FOG BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
LOW CONDITIONS AT KART AND KJHW.
ONCE THE STRATUS AND FOG MIXES OUT, VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.
INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS. ISOLATED RISK FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, FAVORING INLAND OF LAKE ERIE (KJHW) WILL BECOME MORE
IN NUMBERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING INCLUDING KIAG
AND KBUF AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR
FAR WNY.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING THAT COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...BROTHERS/TMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page