330
FXUS61 KBUF 100518
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
118 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE
LATE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE DRY WITH PATCHY FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WESTERN AND NORTH- CENTRAL NY THURSDAY AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD. DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM REMNANT CONVECTION FURTHER WEST MAY LINGER
NEAR LAKE ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AS THE WAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT. MLCAPE WILL BE 1000-1500
J/KG INLAND FROM ANY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP, BUT 500MB
WINDS OF 25-30 KTS WILL KEEP SHEAR PROFILES AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION
RATHER LIMITED. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WOULD
SUPPORT VERTICAL TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT WHERE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FROM
THE FINGER LAKES REGION EASTWARD TOWARDS NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE BEFORE PULLING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH IN TURN WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO PUSHING THE COLD FRONT TO FURTHER EXIT THE AREA
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
FILL IN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THIS ALL
BEING SAID, EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OVERHEAD.
IN ADDITION TO THE CALM QUIESCENT WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE END OF
THE WEEK, A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT A NEAR NORMAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS THE
NEXT TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE
WILL RIPPLE THROUGH AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PROVINCE OF
ONTARIO SUNDAY, AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE'S TROUGH AXIS SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WILL SUPPORT A WARM AND COLD FRONT TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA,
INTRODUCING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN ELONGATED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OUTSIDE SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND FOG. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR IFR OR BELOW IS AT KJHW, KOLE, AND KFZY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE LOW AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EAST OF THE LAKES AND FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA INTO THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. SOME HI-RES MEMBERS HAVE CONVECTION INITIATION AS EARLY AS
16Z WHILE SOME WAIT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. CONVECTION MAY IMPACT KJHW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF KIAG, KBUF, AND KROC THIS
AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...BROTHERS
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