036
FXUS61 KBUF 101613
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1213 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS SOUTH OF THE CITIES OF BUFFALO,
ROCHESTER, AND WATERTOWN COULD BE SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE MAIN HAZARD. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LATEST GOES IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NY SINCE MID-MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. GENERALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADED INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS MID-
LEVEL LOW.
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. ANOTHER AREA TO MONITOR WILL BE
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN CHAUTAUQUA CO
WITH AGITATED CU OBSERVED SINCE MID-MORNING IN A DEEPENING
INSTABILITY PROFILE. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS JUST SHY OF 1000
J/KG OF MLCAPE EXPECTED TO GROW TOWARDS 1500 J/KG WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REACH UP TO 30 KT WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
FLOW IN THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH IN
CANADA. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
STORMS TODAY, BUT SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
ORGANZIED CELLS. AS FOR FRIDAY, A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MORNING VALLEY FOG
ERODES. THIS WOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN WEAK SHEAR, BUT
SHORT-LIVED CELLS COULD STILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS IN THE
VICINITY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND, THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US THAT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAT IMPACTS.
HOWEVER, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DROP A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WESTERN NY SUNDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. TIMING UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE PASSING OF THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY THAT WOULD HAVE
IMPACTS ON MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TIME AS WELL AS POTENTIAL HEAT
IMPACTS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DELAYED TO
LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, LEADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
UNDER THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE (20%)
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS.
HEAT: LATEST GEFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING AROUND 18-19 DEGC
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD BE AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH
PERCENTILE VALUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY. ADDITIONALLY, MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70 AND "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID-90S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT RELIEF WILL BE MINIMAL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING
ABOVE THE 70 DEGF MARK IN MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY URBAN
AREAS. SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AS WELL, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY LIMIT IMPACTS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR MONDAY, WITH LARGELY DRY
WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT ALBEIT BRIEF COOLER CONDITIONS. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THEN BEGINS TO BUILD AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AND LOOKS LIKE IT
PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH...THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES (TIMING)
AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS IN LOCK STEP. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN ELONGATED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO OHIO THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND ERODE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OUTSIDE
FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR OR BELOW IS AT KJHW, KOLE, AND KFZY
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE LOW AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF THE LAKES AND FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA INTO THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION TODAY. SOME HI-RES MEMBERS HAVE CONVECTION INITIATION
AS EARLY AS 16Z WHILE SOME WAIT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. CONVECTION MAY
IMPACT KJHW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF KIAG, KBUF, AND
KROC THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BROTHERS/HSK
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS
SHORT TERM...BROTHERS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...BROTHERS
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