908
FXUS61 KBUF 102318
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
718 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. OTHERWISE HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
REMNANTS OF THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION CONTINUE TO STUBBORNLY HANG
ON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN FINGER LAKES AS OF THIS WRITING...
HOWEVER THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY FALL APART
THROUGH MID EVENING AS THESE PUSH INTO LAKE-INFLUENCED AIR FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TONIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF FRIDAY...WITH SOME FOG FORMING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
TONIGHT AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MORNING VALLEY FOG ERODES. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT FAIRLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITHIN WEAK SHEAR, BUT SHORT-LIVED CELLS COULD STILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND, THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US THAT WILL LEAD TO WARMER
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAT IMPACTS.
HOWEVER, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DROP A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WESTERN NY SUNDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. TIMING UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE PASSING OF THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY THAT WOULD HAVE
IMPACTS ON MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TIME AS WELL AS POTENTIAL HEAT
IMPACTS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DELAYED TO
LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, LEADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
UNDER THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE (20%)
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS.
HEAT: LATEST GEFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING AROUND 18-19 DEGC
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD BE AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH
PERCENTILE VALUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY. ADDITIONALLY, MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70 AND "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID-90S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
OVERNIGHT RELIEF WILL BE MINIMAL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING
ABOVE THE 70 DEGF MARK IN MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY URBAN
AREAS. SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AS WELL, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY LIMIT IMPACTS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR MONDAY, WITH LARGELY DRY
WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT ALBEIT BRIEF COOLER CONDITIONS. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THEN BEGINS TO BUILD AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AND LOOKS LIKE IT
PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH...THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES (TIMING)
AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS IN LOCK STEP. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN FINGER LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY FALL APART THROUGH MID-EVENING AS
IT THIS PUSHES INTO LAKE-INFLUENCED AIR FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND
DAYTIME HEATING WANES. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH SOME IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS...
PARTICULARLY THOSE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES THAT
SAW RAIN TODAY.
ON FRIDAY ANY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING...WITH VFR/DRY CONDITIONS THEN
GENERALLY PREVAILING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...SAVE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT NOTABLE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BROTHERS/JJR
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS/JJR
SHORT TERM...BROTHERS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BROTHERS/JJR
MARINE...BROTHERS/JJR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page