953
FXUS61 KBUF 110742
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. OTHERWISE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND INLAND FROM LAKE
BREEZES, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES REGION TODAY. WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE PATTERN WILL START TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A DEEP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST,
UNCERTAINITY GROWS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BUILDING RIDGE. A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. DEWPOINTS
ARE FORECAST NEAR 70 DEGREES, WHICH MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND GENESEE VALLEY. CLOUD
COVER MAY PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES LOWER WHICH ADDS
UNCERTAINITY IN MEETING THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. SLIGHT COOLER
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE REGION CAPPED, HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL BE OVERCOME WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHER CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY. PWATS ARE HIGH, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN IN ANY ACTIVITY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE LOWER
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS GENERALLY ONLY DIPPING BACK INTO THE 70S. SUM IT UP, THE
AIR CONDITIONERS WILL LIKELY BE WORKING OVERTIME AGAIN.
MOVING ON...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
SUNDAY, THIS AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION. AT
THIS POINT...THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LOOK 'LIMITED' GIVEN SHEAR
(0-6 KM) VALUES OF ONLY 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE SOUPY ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE, THE GREATER RISK MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PW VALUES
HOVERING ABOVE +1.8 INCHES. ALSO...BUFKIT SHOWS SHORT MBE VECTORS
WITH LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS
STORMS TRAIN OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY, FOR WHICH WPC HAS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER OUR CWA.
OTHERWISE..ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP SUNDAY BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM
OWING TOO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVERAGE. EVEN SO...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S AGAIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT BUT DRIER
WEATHER WILL SLOWLY TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUILDS IN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY WEATHER AND ALBEIT LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH MAXT'S FOUND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COMFORTABLE SLEEP CONDITIONS
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO BUILD AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AND LOOKS LIKE
IT POSSIBLY PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY BUT COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH...THIS WILL ALL DEPEND
ON WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES (TIMING) AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS IN LOCK
STEP. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK COOLER AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOG IS EXPANDING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES THIS MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BOUNCE FROM MVFR TO IFR OR BELOW OVERNIGHT AT KJHW. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT OTHER LOCAL TAF SITES.
FOG WILL ERODE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION,
WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING INLAND FROM LAKE BREEZES.
LOCALIZED, BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR BELOW ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT ACTIVITY WILL REACH TAF SITES. ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY FROM THE
WEST APPROACHES WESTERN NY FOR THE SECOND PART OF TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT NOTABLE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/JJR
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...BROTHERS/JJR
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