422
FXUS61 KBUF 112043
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
443 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MAINLY FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND FROM
LAKE BREEZES, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES REGION INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW LOWER 90S IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST NEAR 70
DEGREES, WHICH MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ALONG
THE LAKE PLAINS/GENESEE VALLEY/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DEPENDING UPON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE REGION CAPPED, HOWEVER SOME CAMS DO
SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL
NEW YORK.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY, BUT IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS HOT AS SATURDAY. SOME OF THE WARMEST HEAT INDICES
COULD STILL GET INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS/GENESEE
VALLEY/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE
REGION, RESULTING IN INCREASING COVER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 2+" WILL
BRING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED DURING THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY FROM SLOWER
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER 3 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE 2-2.5" INCH RANGE. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTER THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH'S AXIS PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
THROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH'S PASSAGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS ALL BEING SAID, AS THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT FROM
SUNDAY FINISHES EXITING EASTERN NEW YORK MONDAY MORNING, DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WHILE DRY, THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
ADVECT IN WARM GULF AIR INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
SUPPORTING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER, FEATURING HEAT INDICES WELL INTO
THE 80S AND EVEN 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL. THIS
BEING SAID, KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL EXPECT
AN ALLEVIATION IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION, INLAND FROM
LAKE BREEZES. LOCALIZED, BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR BELOW ARE
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT ACTIVITY WILL REACH
TAF SITES.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY FROM
THE WEST MOVES INTO WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
MAINLY STAY VFR, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM
COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR OR BELOW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN VALLEY FOG ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER EARLY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, WINDS BECOME WEST AND NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE WEAKENING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/JM/JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HSK/TMA/JM
MARINE...BROTHERS/JJR/TMA
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