096
FXUS61 KBUF 120027
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
827 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ANY WANING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO
OUR EAST AND WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 70S.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER FARTHER TO
THE EAST INTO THE START OF SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW LOWER 90S IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST NEAR 70
DEGREES, WHICH MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ALONG
THE LAKE PLAINS/GENESEE VALLEY/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DEPENDING UPON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE REGION CAPPED, HOWEVER SOME CAMS DO
SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL
NEW YORK.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY, BUT IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS HOT AS SATURDAY. SOME OF THE WARMEST HEAT INDICES
COULD STILL GET INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS/GENESEE
VALLEY/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE
REGION, RESULTING IN INCREASING COVER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 2+" WILL
BRING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED DURING THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY FROM SLOWER
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER 3 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE 2-2.5" INCH RANGE. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTER THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH'S AXIS PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
THROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH'S PASSAGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS ALL BEING SAID, AS THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT FROM
SUNDAY FINISHES EXITING EASTERN NEW YORK MONDAY MORNING, DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WHILE DRY, THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
ADVECT IN WARM GULF AIR INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
SUPPORTING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER, FEATURING HEAT INDICES WELL INTO
THE 80S AND EVEN 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL. THIS
BEING SAID, KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL EXPECT
AN ALLEVIATION IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, AS ANY WANING
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST MOVES INTO WESTERN NY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR, HOWEVER THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ALLEGANY COUNTIES WHERE IT RAINED THE
PREVIOUS EVENING.
ANY LINGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START
OFF SATURDAY WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING BRINGS RENEWED LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL AGAIN HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING A LOCALIZED BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY FLAT WAVE CONDITIONS OVER LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING SOME OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HOWEVER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, WINDS BECOME WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
WEAKENING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/JM/JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/JJR/TMA
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