399
FXUS61 KBUF 261907
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
307 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THEN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MIDDAY THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS SET TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, PEAKING ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
STALLED WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST NOW STARTING TO MAKE A SLOW
RETURN NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES, BEST CHANCES STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES, WHILE A LAKE SHADOW SHOULD KEEP AREAS
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE DAY. VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.
A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. CAMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT THIS FEATURE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RAMP UP
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE, HOWEVER BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING COMBINATION LOOK TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND CENTRAL NY SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT.
PWAT VALUES NEARING, AND IN SOME CASES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WILL
SUPPLY THE JUICE FOR ANY STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DESPITE RECENT DRY WEATHER, SOME INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE AREA PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH WPC, A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, WITH STEADIER SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY MORNING
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, HOWEVER HUMIDITY WILL
TICK BACK UP A FEW MORE NOTCHES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKEND'S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...MID AND UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE-BASED RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CORRESPONDINGLY EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC IN CONCERT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE ABOVE WILL RESULT IN FAIR DRY WEATHER DOMINATING THE BULK OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MONDAY...SAVE FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AS 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF +19 TO +20C SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY. COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/NEAR 70...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS REACHING THE MID
AND UPPER 90S FROM PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL
MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE SLOWLY
PIVOTING THEIR ATTENDANT WEAK TRAILING "COOL" FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE EXPECTED LOSS OF ITS UPPER SUPPORT
OVER TIME. WITH ANY ASSOCIATED AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
MEAGER AND BRIEF AT BEST...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT AND MUGGY
DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES
AGAIN SEEING APPARENT TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY REACHING LOW-
END HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DURING THE REST OF THIS PERIOD A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL
THEN TAKE SHAPE...AS THE WESTWARD RETROGRESSION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE DOWNSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLING THROUGH THE FRONT FLANK OF THIS TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SUPPLYING A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR. WITH OUR
AIRMASS ALSO BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY COOL ALOFT...WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS UNCOMFORTABLE AS THE PRECEDING COUPLE OF DAYS...
THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND
NOTABLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A COUPLE LINGERING SHOWERS AT
THE START OF THURSDAY...THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER/MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND NIGHTLY LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE, STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST HAS STARTED TO
MAKE ITS' SLOW RETURN NORTHEASTWARD AS WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, BEST CHANCES STRETCHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES, WHILE A LAKE SHADOW
SHOULD KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTIONS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR
STORM (MAINLY KJHW).
TONIGHT, INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RAMP UP
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND CENTRAL NY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
MORE FREQUENT ILL-TIMED BOUTS OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT CIGS IN GENERAL TO DETERIORATE TO LOW VFR/MVFR
ACROSS THE REGION SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE
DEEPER MOISTURE. THUS MVFR/IFR WILL HANG ON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY MID AFTERNOON.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. AN ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY BREEZES WILL INCREASE
MODESTLY SUNDAY BEHIND THIS WAVE, WITH SOME LIGHT CHOP DEVELOPING ON
BOTH LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK/JM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page