781
FXUS61 KBUF 270452
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1252 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO
THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
IS SET TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, PEAKING ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. CAMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT THIS FEATURE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RAMP UP
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE, HOWEVER BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING COMBINATION LOOK TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND CENTRAL NY SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT.
PWAT VALUES NEARING, AND IN SOME CASES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WILL
SUPPLY THE JUICE FOR ANY STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DESPITE RECENT DRY WEATHER, SOME INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE AREA PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH WPC, A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, WITH STEADIER SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY MORNING
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, HOWEVER HUMIDITY WILL
TICK BACK UP A FEW MORE NOTCHES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKEND'S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...MID AND UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE-BASED RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL CORRESPONDINGLY EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC IN CONCERT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE ABOVE WILL RESULT IN FAIR DRY WEATHER DOMINATING THE BULK OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MONDAY...SAVE FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AS 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF +19 TO +20C SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY. COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/NEAR 70...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS REACHING THE MID
AND UPPER 90S FROM PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL
MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE SLOWLY
PIVOTING THEIR ATTENDANT WEAK TRAILING "COOL" FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE EXPECTED LOSS OF ITS UPPER SUPPORT
OVER TIME. WITH ANY ASSOCIATED AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
MEAGER AND BRIEF AT BEST...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT AND MUGGY
DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES
AGAIN SEEING APPARENT TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY REACHING LOW-
END HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DURING THE REST OF THIS PERIOD A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL
THEN TAKE SHAPE...AS THE WESTWARD RETROGRESSION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE DOWNSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLING THROUGH THE FRONT FLANK OF THIS TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SUPPLYING A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR. WITH OUR
AIRMASS ALSO BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY COOL ALOFT...WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS UNCOMFORTABLE AS THE PRECEDING COUPLE OF DAYS...
THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND
NOTABLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A COUPLE LINGERING SHOWERS AT
THE START OF THURSDAY...THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER/MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND NIGHTLY LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A VERY HUMID AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOW VSBY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 9Z, THEN FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY LOWER TOWARDS SUNRISE. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NY AFTER 8Z, WHICH
MAY IMPACT KART FOR A FEW HOURS. SIMILARLY BUT NOT AS ORGANIZED,
TRAINING CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN NY THROUGH SUNRISE.
A FRONT WITH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-
AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. AN ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY BREEZES WILL INCREASE
MODESTLY SUNDAY BEHIND THIS WAVE, WITH SOME LIGHT CHOP DEVELOPING ON
BOTH LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/JM
NEAR TERM...HSK/JM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/HSK/JM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page