738
FXUS61 KBUF 271406
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LEFTOVER...MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE LATTER THEN
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
OTHERWISE MIDSUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND USHERS IN A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS
FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF THIS WRITING THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED TO OUR EAST IN CONCERT WITH THE AXIS OF
THE CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SHORTWAVE... THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY STILL LINGERS BACK ACROSS OUR REGION (PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER) OWING TO LINGERING
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE
TOO WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE ADDITIONAL POP-UP
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...
SOUTHERN TIER...AND ALONG A WEAK LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...HOWEVER BY AND LARGE DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE THROUGH THE 80S UNDER INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED MUGGY DEWPOINTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
70.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CONUS AND ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL CAUSE A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH'S ARRIVAL, A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING OVERHEAD MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP TOWARDS +19 TO +20 DEGREES CELSIUS MONDAY SUPPORTING ANOTHER WARM
DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND
SOME LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
FROM NIAGARA FALLS TO ROCHESTER AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT ONLY ENCOURAGE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, BUT ALSO INTRODUCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PASS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOSS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH TIME. DESPITE ANY AIRMASS CHANGE, THE
AIRMASS WILL BE WEAK AND BRIEF, AND THEREFORE ANOTHER WARM MUGGY DAY
WILL BE ON TAP TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES AGAIN WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL THEN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
INTRODUCING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO THE AREA AND RESULT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A
DRYING TREND WILL PERSIST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD, EXPECT A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER OVERHEAD, SUPPORTING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILING FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. IN TANDEM WITH THIS...LINGERING AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
WILL ALSO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP DEVELOPING ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE WAVES SHOULD REACH THE 3
FOOT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE BRINGING LOWERING WINDS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/JJR
NEAR TERM...HSK/JJR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HSK/JJR
MARINE...JJR
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