116
FXUS61 KBUF 271746
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
146 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW LEFTOVER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WIND DOWN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE LATTER THEN BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE MIDSUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND USHERS IN A COOLER AND MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF THIS WRITING THE BULK OF THE AREA IS NOW DRY...THANKS TO DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S SHORTWAVE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL POP-UP SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY... SOUTHERN TIER...AND ALONG A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...HOWEVER BY AND LARGE
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S UNDER INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MUGGY DEWPOINTS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN EXTEND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. THIS BEING
SAID...GIVEN OUR HUMID AIRMASS AND WINDS GOING LIGHT UNDER LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. ALL THIS WILL THEN MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...AFTER A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S TONIGHT...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND TO
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO THE VICINITY OF +19 TO +20C. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS DRIER AIR GETS MIXED DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES LARGELY
REMAINING BELOW 95F...WITH ANY OCCURRENCES OF THE LATTER LIKELY TO
REMAIN RATHER BRIEF AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
HELD OFF ON ANY HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CONUS AND ACROSS MUCH OF
CANADA A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH'S
ARRIVAL, A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT ONLY ENCOURAGE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, BUT ALSO INTRODUCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PASS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOSS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH TIME. DESPITE ANY AIRMASS CHANGE, THE
AIRMASS WILL BE WEAK AND BRIEF, AND THEREFORE ANOTHER WARM MUGGY DAY
WILL BE ON TAP TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES AGAIN WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL THEN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
INTRODUCING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO THE AREA AND RESULT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A
DRYING TREND WILL PERSIST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD, EXPECT A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER OVERHEAD, SUPPORTING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LEFTOVER WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE LARGELY
PREVAILING. LEFTOVER AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY
MID-AFTERNOON...WITH LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT. GIVEN OUR HUMID AIRMASS AND WINDS GOING LIGHT UNDER LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES...INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IN SPOTS AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
IFR/LIFR VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
LIKELY IMPACTING KJHW. ELSEWHERE...SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHTER
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KBUF/KIAG/KART OVERNIGHT.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL THEN MIX OUT QUICKLY FOLLOWING
SUNRISE ON MONDAY...WITH LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING UNLIMITED
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP FOUND ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
THE CASE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE WAVES SHOULD REACH THE
3 FOOT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE BRINGING LOWERING WINDS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
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