275
FXUS61 KBUF 271856
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW LEFTOVER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WIND DOWN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE LATTER THEN BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE MIDSUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND USHERS IN A COOLER AND MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF THIS WRITING THE BULK OF THE AREA IS NOW DRY...THANKS TO DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S SHORTWAVE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL POP-UP SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...SOUTHERN TIER...AND ALONG A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...HOWEVER BY AND
LARGE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S UNDER INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MUGGY DEWPOINTS
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN EXTEND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. THIS BEING
SAID...GIVEN OUR HUMID AIRMASS AND WINDS GOING LIGHT UNDER LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. ALL THIS WILL THEN MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...AFTER A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S TONIGHT...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND TO
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO THE VICINITY OF +19 TO +20C. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS DRIER AIR GETS MIXED DOWN FROM
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES LARGELY
REMAINING BELOW 95F...WITH ANY OCCURRENCES OF THE LATTER LIKELY TO
REMAIN RATHER BRIEF AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
HELD OFF ON ANY HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY STRONG/BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
MEANWHILE...A COUPLE MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SLIDE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND ITS NORTHERN FLANK AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST OF THESE AND ITS DYING WEAK COOL FRONT
CROSSING OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN THE SECOND AND MORE NOTABLE OF
THE TWO WAVES THEN APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY.
IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES...THESE CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LIMITED
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE INITIAL WEAK COOL FRONT IN THE
PROCESS OF LOSING ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IN A DYING STATE IN
AND OF ITSELF...EXPECT THAT ANY CONVECTION WITH THIS WOULD BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SUCH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY...UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE BRINGS ANOTHER RISK FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY LATE IN
THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO OR
PERHAPS A TOUCH HIGHER THAN ON MONDAY...AND WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASING SOME OUT AHEAD OF THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY APPEAR LIKELY TO RUN A BIT
HIGHER THAN ON MONDAY (THOUGH LIKELY NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS ADVERTISED
BY THE NBM). ALL OF THIS MAY RESULT IN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...LOWER GENESEE VALLEY...AND FINGER LAKES ACTUALLY HAVING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING APPARENT TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER
90S TUESDAY THAN ON MONDAY...A TREND THAT STARTED LAST NIGHT AND HAS
CONTINUED IN THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED
THE HWO TO BETTER REFLECT THIS TREND.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE FURTHER WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA...WHILE FURTHER EAST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEPENING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST.
THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
BRING A RISK FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEN INCREASING FURTHER WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN ELONGATED SECONDARY (AND STRONGER) COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR
REGION. WITH OUR AIRMASS ALSO BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY COOL ALOFT
BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT'S WEAK COOL FRONT...WEDNESDAY SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS HOT AS THE PRECEDING COUPLE OF DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL STILL
BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WHILE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE
START OF THURSDAY DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN TO COOLER AND
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER/MUCH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE BY LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK TO WARM BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILING AFTER THURSDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LEFTOVER WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE LARGELY PREVAILING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT. GIVEN OUR HUMID AIRMASS AND WINDS GOING LIGHT UNDER LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES...INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IN SPOTS AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
IFR/LIFR VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
LIKELY IMPACTING KJHW. ELSEWHERE...SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHTER
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KBUF/KIAG/KART OVERNIGHT.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL THEN MIX OUT QUICKLY FOLLOWING
SUNRISE ON MONDAY...WITH LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING UNLIMITED
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP FOUND ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
THE CASE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE WAVES SHOULD REACH THE
3 FOOT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE BRINGING LOWERING WINDS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page