873
FXUS61 KBUF 280629
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
229 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN MAINLY
DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE MID-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
MIDWEEK RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO GRACE THE REGION FOR
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS DEPICTING A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HILLS
EAST OF LAKE ERE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. ADDITIONALLY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR, VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. FOG IS SOON EXPECTED TO EXPAND FURTHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING/BURNING OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE DRY WEATHER IS ATTRIBUTED TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY, NOT ONLY SUPPORTING FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO PERSIST TODAY, BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MID-
SUMMERTIME HEAT. HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY WITH A FEW LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB UP TOWARDS +19/+20C. SHOULD
NOTE WHILE IT WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE TODAY, DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
LIKELY MIX DOWN, SUPPORTING LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES,
KEEPING HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
SUPPORTING THE CALM QUIESCENT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A DRY, COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE TO NO COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND AND A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S,
UPPER 80S TO 90 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND RESULT IN HEAT INDICIES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT HEAT INDICES OF
95F+ WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO, BETWEEN LAKE HURON AND LAKE ONTARIO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THEY MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY BY TUESDAY EVENING. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INCREASES THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY, HOWEVER
A LOT DEPENDS ON THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT. A FEW POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL A
LITTLE COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IT'S NOT UNTIL A
TERTIARY FRONT MOVES SOUTH LATER IN THE NIGHT THAT MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR ARRIVES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE ADVERTISED AIRMASS CHANGE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BEGIN
A BELOW AVERAGE PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY, THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN SATURDAY, WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 06Z, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL BUT ONE TAF
SITE, WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING KJHW WHERE VALLEY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED SUPPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES,
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FOG
FORMATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND BLACK RIVER VALLEY,
THOUGH FOG MAY EXPAND INTO KBUF/KIAG AND KART. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO IFR, WITH LIFR POSSIBLE IN THE DENSER
FOG ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. FOG WILL THEN DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK RETURNING ALL TAF SITES TO VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SUPPORTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION.
A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY FRONT'S
PASSAGE, SUPPORTING CHOPPIER CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
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