911
FXUS61 KBUF 281406
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE MAINTAINING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MIDSUMMER HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG AND LOW STRATUS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING
AND MIXING...WITH THE REMAINS OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE GONE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER TODAY ALONG WITH MIDSUMMER HEAT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY...WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +19/+20C. MEANWHILE INCREASING
DIURNAL MIXING WILL HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...SUCH
THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...OR
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES. WHILE A FEW SPOTS COULD BRIEFLY SEE SOME
95F APPARENT T'S...THESE SHOULD REMAIN TOO BRIEF/LOCALIZED TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
ALLOWING DRY WEATHER AND QUIESCENT CONDITIONS TO LARGELY PERSIST.
THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL LIE ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...
WHERE THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A QUICK POP-UP SHOWER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH THIS
EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A DRY, COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE TO NO COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND AND A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S,
UPPER 80S TO 90 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND RESULT IN HEAT INDICIES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT HEAT INDICES OF
95F+ WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO, BETWEEN LAKE HURON AND LAKE ONTARIO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THEY MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY BY TUESDAY EVENING. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INCREASES THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY, HOWEVER
A LOT DEPENDS ON THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT. A FEW POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL A
LITTLE COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IT'S NOT UNTIL A
TERTIARY FRONT MOVES SOUTH LATER IN THE NIGHT THAT MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR ARRIVES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE ADVERTISED AIRMASS CHANGE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BEGIN
A BELOW AVERAGE PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY, THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN SATURDAY, WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LINGERING FOG/LOW STRATUS IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...WITH THIS AND ANY ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION.
A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY FRONT'S
PASSAGE, SUPPORTING CHOPPIER CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...EAJ/JJR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...EAJ/JJR
MARINE...EAJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page