885
FXUS61 KBUF 281801
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
201 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE MAINTAINING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MIDSUMMER HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MIDSUMMER HEAT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY...WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +19/+20C. MEANWHILE INCREASING
DIURNAL MIXING WILL HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT...
SUCH THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...OR LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES. WHILE A FEW SPOTS COULD BRIEFLY
SEE SOME 95F APPARENT T'S...THESE SHOULD REMAIN TOO BRIEF/LOCALIZED
TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DYING WEAK SURFACE "COOL" FRONT WILL
THEN SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH THESE RATHER
MOISTURE-STARVED EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH JUST A VERY LOW (NON-ZERO, BUT NON-MENTIONABLE)
CHANCE OF A QUICK POP-UP SHOWER ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. COULD STILL
SEE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP WITHIN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS T-TD SPREADS NARROW IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT BE ANYWHERE
NEAR AS PREVALENT AS WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
ON TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS OUR REGION OUT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DAY OF FAIR DRY WEATHER...WITH JUST A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER ON IN THE DAY. IN TANDEM WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
INFLUENCES...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S
WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO OR A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OF TODAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN FROM ALOFT...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AGAIN HELPING TO KEEP APPARENT
TEMPERATURES LARGELY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL MARK A TRANSITION FROM THE RECENT HOT AND
HUMID PATTERN, TO A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION STARTING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING A BIT DRIER AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION, BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW TRACK NEAR AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS AS SOME GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA IN PIECES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE MAIN
PORTION OF THE FRONT THROUGH IN THE MORNING, WHILE MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORCING IN
GENERAL DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO HINDER SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT. BUT THE PASSING
FRONT/TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE DAY FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF THE
COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER OR STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION BY THE
LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90, AND COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S
RANGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...SAVE
FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODEST
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION...WITH LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZES
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE SECONDARY FRONT'S PASSAGE, SUPPORTING CHOPPIER CONDITIONS ON
BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...EAJ/JJR
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