785
FXUS61 KBUF 282213
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
613 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE MAINTAINING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MIDSUMMER HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER
LAKE ERIE, WHICH IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD. COULD SEE A SHOWER CLIP SW
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP HERE.
OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM THIS EVENING.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DYING WEAK SURFACE "COOL" FRONT WILL
THEN SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH THESE RATHER
MOISTURE-STARVED EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH JUST A VERY LOW (NON-ZERO, BUT NON-MENTIONABLE)
CHANCE OF A QUICK POP-UP SHOWER ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. COULD STILL
SEE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP WITHIN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS T-TD SPREADS NARROW IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT BE ANYWHERE
NEAR AS PREVALENT AS WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
ON TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS OUR REGION OUT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DAY OF FAIR DRY WEATHER...WITH JUST A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER ON IN THE DAY. IN TANDEM WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
INFLUENCES...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S
WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO OR A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OF TODAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN FROM ALOFT...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AGAIN HELPING TO KEEP APPARENT
TEMPERATURES LARGELY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL MARK A TRANSITION FROM THE RECENT HOT AND
HUMID PATTERN, TO A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION STARTING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING A BIT DRIER AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION, BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW TRACK NEAR AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS AS SOME GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA IN PIECES THROUGH THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE MAIN
PORTION OF THE FRONT THROUGH IN THE MORNING, WHILE MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORCING IN
GENERAL DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO HINDER SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT. BUT THE PASSING
FRONT/TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE DAY FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF THE
COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER OR STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION BY THE
LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90, AND COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S
RANGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND AND THESE SHOULD
LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
FOG REACHING THE KJHW AIRFIELD TONIGHT FROM THE RIVER VALLEY BELOW.
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD,
THOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW MAY REACH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS FOR KIAG, KROC
AND KART.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODEST
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION...WITH LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZES
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE SECONDARY FRONT'S PASSAGE, SUPPORTING CHOPPIER CONDITIONS ON
BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...EAJ/JJR
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