822
FXUS61 KBUF 290545
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
145 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WHILE
MAINTAINING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MID-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MORE COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. WARM TODAY,
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON, HENCE HEAT INDICES WILL BE CLOSER TO DAYTIME HIGHS AND
UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM (15-20% CHANCE) ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TONIGHT, AS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WITH AN UPTICK IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(15-20%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND COLD COVER WILL SUPPORT A SOME-WHAT COOLER DAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NY. AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY/NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL SUPPORT A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE (20-35%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE
A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15-25%) OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
IF THE COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER OR STALLS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF
THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90, AND COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S
RANGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NY THIS MORNING. SOME VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP, HOWEVER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL 6-8 DEG F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY AT KJHW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPTICK IN NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 10-15KTS WILL OCCUR AT KIAG, KBUF, KROC, AND KART THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVE ACTION...WITH LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.
A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE SECONDARY FRONT'S PASSAGE, SUPPORTING CHOPPIER CONDITIONS ON
BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/JJR
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JJR
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