761
FXUS61 KBUF 291033
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
633 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WHILE
MAINTAINING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MID-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MORE COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY,
WITH LITTLE RELIEF TO THE SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY. A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON, AND HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
(15-20% CHANCE) ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TONIGHT, AS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WITH AN UPTICK IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(15-20%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT
A SOME- WHAT COOLER DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL NY TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN
NY. AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY/NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL SUPPORT A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (20-35%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE A
MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (15-25%) OF A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS BEFORE TEMPORARILY
STALLING OUT. 28/12Z AND 29/00Z SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN A BIT FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A COUPLE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS CONTINUES TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOW
ON A MORE DEFINITIVE CUTOFF TO THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS POINT, OVERALL CONSENSUS POINTS TO
SCHC POPS TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY, INCREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT
TO HIGH CHC CLOSER TO THE NY/PA LINE FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT BOUNDARY PLACEMENT
AND TRACK/TIMING OF AFOREMENTIONED WEAK WAVES, FEEL THIS IS
REASONABLE FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
REACHED. OTHERWISE, COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SLOWLY BE MAKING
INROADS ACROSS THE AREA COURTESY OF NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING SOME LOWERING OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S MIN TEMPS, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MUGGY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. INFLUENCE FROM THIS NEW AIRMASS ENTERING
OUR REGION WILL BE 'FELT' MUCH MORE ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FINALLY MAKES A SOLID PUSH
SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 5 TO IN SOME CASES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT, FINALLY FORCING THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AT THE SAME TIME,
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO SPAWN A COASTAL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RAIN SHIELD
LIKELY REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF AREA AS STRONG CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE
AND REFRESHING THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A FANTASTIC STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS THEN
CREEPING BACK UP TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, WHILE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY COMFORTABLE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NY THIS MORNING. SOME VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND HAS MOVED
INTO KJHW. FOG WILL ERODE BY 13Z.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPTICK
IN NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10-15KTS WILL OCCUR AT KIAG, KBUF, KROC,
AND KART THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY
CAUSE RESTRICTIONS AT KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVE ACTION...WITH LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.
A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE SECONDARY FRONT'S PASSAGE, SUPPORTING CHOPPIER CONDITIONS ON
BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/JJR
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JJR
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