976
FXUS61 KBUF 291748
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
148 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY
WHILE MAINTAINING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MID-SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THEN FOLLOWING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE CLIMBED MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DANSVILLE AS THE WARM SPOT
IN THE LOW-90S. HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO SEEN "FEELS LIKE"
TEMPERATURES REACHING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST.
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP
MIXING AND MINOR RELIEF FROM THESE HIGHER HEAT INDICIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FIRST WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT OVERALL SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. PORTIONS OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY COULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS
(15-20% CHANCE) WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING WITH
THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN CANADA, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE MID WEEK PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE (35-55%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY ALONG A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE UNDERNEATH THE GENERAL TROUGHING
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY POSITION ITSELF
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT GENERAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO PLACE THIS FEATURE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SO MODEL SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON ITS POSITION AFTER
RESULTANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVERALL, EC MEMBERS
HAVE BEEN INCREASING CERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH
OF THE BUFFALO METRO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION, BUT ~50% OF GEFS MEMBERS HAVE DIFFERED DUE TO A MORE
BROADER LARGE SCALE TROUGH. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
MOST SHOWERS ONLY PROVIDING AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCHES, BUT ANY
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD STILL LEAD TO A QUICK 1-2 INCHES
BASED ON NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF AMOUNTS.
INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER AHEAD FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TOWARDS 10 DEGC
(BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR EARLY AUGUST) WILL SUPPORT NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 DEGF, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A FANTASTIC STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS THEN
CREEPING BACK UP TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, WHILE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY COMFORTABLE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DAYTIME CU AROUND 4 KFT WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER, INCLUDING NEAR KJHW, BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.
WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, BUT STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND
10 KT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE SECONDARY FRONT'S PASSAGE, SUPPORTING CHOPPIER CONDITIONS ON
BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/JJR
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS
SHORT TERM...BROTHERS
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BROTHERS
MARINE...BROTHERS/HSK
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