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FXUS61 KBUF 292325
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
725 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER AND MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S, WITH SOME PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FIRST WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT OVERALL SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. PORTIONS OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY COULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS
(15-20% CHANCE) WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING WITH
THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN CANADA, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE MID WEEK PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE (35-55%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY ALONG A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE UNDERNEATH THE GENERAL TROUGHING
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY POSITION ITSELF
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT GENERAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO PLACE THIS FEATURE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SO MODEL SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON ITS POSITION AFTER
RESULTANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVERALL, EC MEMBERS
HAVE BEEN INCREASING CERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH
OF THE BUFFALO METRO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION, BUT ~50% OF GEFS MEMBERS HAVE DIFFERED DUE TO A MORE
BROADER LARGE SCALE TROUGH. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
MOST SHOWERS ONLY PROVIDING AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCHES, BUT ANY
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD STILL LEAD TO A QUICK 1-2 INCHES
BASED ON NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF AMOUNTS.
INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER AHEAD FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TOWARDS 10 DEGC
(BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR EARLY AUGUST) WILL SUPPORT NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 DEGF, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SET TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A FANTASTIC STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS THEN
CREEPING BACK UP TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, WHILE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY COMFORTABLE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SKC-SCT250 TONIGHT. LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP WITH
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER, INCLUDING NEAR KJHW, BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE REMAINS
LOW. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE SECONDARY FRONT'S PASSAGE, SUPPORTING CHOPPIER CONDITIONS ON
BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK/JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS/TMA
SHORT TERM...BROTHERS
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BROTHERS/TMA
MARINE...BROTHERS/HSK/TMA
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