151
FXUS61 KBUF 300816
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE FINISH OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED QUITE WARM TODAY DESPITE THE FIRST
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A TOUCH LESS HUMID.
MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE FAR NORTH COUNTRY/SL
VALLEY LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, WHEN
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND NEARING COLD FRONT, MAY BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THESE AREAS. ONE MORE VERY
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAKES HEADWAY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE TONIGHT, THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE WHERE
IT WILL STALL OUT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BY LATE
TONIGHT, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY FROM THE
FINGER LAKES WESTWARD BY DAYBREAK (THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS NEAR THE NY/PA LINE).
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL COME ON
THURSDAY AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION
MOVE EAST ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE. NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF BASIN WIDE RAINFALL, HOWEVER LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. PROJECTED AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ARE NEAR ZERO TOWARD THE FAR NORTH COUNTRY, 0.1"-0.2" FOR THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER, LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION, AND
0.25"-0.33" ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-
SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
THURSDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID AFTERNOON. A MUCH COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT
WESTERN NY THURSDAY EVENING. A DRY AND NOTABLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TAP FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH DAY-TO-DAY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS IN TYPICAL
VALLEY FOG FORMATION OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER (POSSIBLY KJHW)
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK, WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL DECKS WILL START TO THICKEN AND LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.
MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE FAR NORTH
COUNTRY/SL VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A
BOOST FROM DAYTIME HEATING, POSSIBLY SPARKING A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
STORM (NORTH OF KART) IN THOSE AREAS, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH NEARLY FLAT WAVE ACTION ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WEAK LARGE-SCALE GRADIENT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT, WITH NORTHEASTERLIES
RAMPING UP LATER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH A PORTION OF FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLY NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK
PORTION OF OUR LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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