473
FXUS61 KBUF 301053
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
653 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE FINISH OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED QUITE WARM TODAY DESPITE THE FIRST
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A TOUCH LESS HUMID.
MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE FAR NORTH COUNTRY/SL
VALLEY LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, WHEN
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND NEARING COLD FRONT, MAY BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THESE AREAS. ONE MORE VERY
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MAKES HEADWAY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE TONIGHT, THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE WHERE
IT WILL STALL OUT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES BY LATE
TONIGHT, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY FROM THE
FINGER LAKES WESTWARD BY DAYBREAK (THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS NEAR THE NY/PA LINE).
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL COME ON
THURSDAY AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA, WHILE ITS'
ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION MOVES EAST ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE. NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF BASIN WIDE RAINFALL,
HOWEVER LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. PROJECTED AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ARE NEAR ZERO TOWARD THE FAR NORTH
COUNTRY, 0.1"-0.2" FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER, LOWER GENESEE VALLEY
AND FINGER LAKES REGION, AND 0.25"-0.33" ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER. LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY MID AFTERNOON. A
MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT
WESTERN NY THURSDAY EVENING. A DRY AND NOTABLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TAP FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH DAY-TO-DAY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS (IFR/LIFR) EARLY THIS MORNING IN VALLEY FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER (INCLUDING KJHW) WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN
A COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE FAR NORTH
COUNTRY/SL VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A
BOOST FROM DAYTIME HEATING, POSSIBLY SPARKING A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
STORM (NORTH OF KART) IN THOSE AREAS, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MID LEVEL DECKS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT STALLS OUT AND
BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE
LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE RIDING EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY (ISOLATED THUNDER CLOSE TO THE NY/PA LINE)
TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH NEARLY FLAT WAVE ACTION ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WEAK LARGE-SCALE GRADIENT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT, WITH NORTHEASTERLIES
RAMPING UP LATER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH A PORTION OF FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLY NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK
PORTION OF OUR LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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