324
FXUS61 KBUF 301815
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
215 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE FINISH OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST, BUT DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY HAS KEPT "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THAT
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER FOR LATE THIS WEEK, AS WELL
AS BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT HEADED
INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO APPROACHING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING FARTHER WEST ON GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
BRINGING THE CHANGE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL POSITION ITSELF
NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HEAVIER
CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LINGERING AROUND ALOFT IN THE MORNING PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING
1 INCH AROUND 30-40%. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE QPF FOOTPRINT
DUE TO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AXIS THAT MAY
BRING ADDITIONALLY RAINFALL UP TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR, BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT TOTALS IN THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
WITH AND REMAINING SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND COOLER
WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT, THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGF LESS
THAN WEDNESDAY REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE LOW-70S
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LATE THIS WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS (DEGC) ACROSS THE AREA, AROUND THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS IS ALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST US AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS LATER INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH DAY-TO-DAY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH IN
WESTERN NY, BUT KBUF AND KIAG COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY MORNING. KJHW AND TERMINALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH NEARLY FLAT WAVE ACTION ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WEAK LARGE-SCALE GRADIENT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT, WITH NORTHEASTERLIES
RAMPING UP LATER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH A PORTION OF FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLY NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK
PORTION OF OUR LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS
SHORT TERM...BROTHERS
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...BROTHERS
MARINE...JM
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