655
FXUS61 KBUF 302331
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE FINISH OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL POSITION ITSELF NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER TONIGHT. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW HEAVIER CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINGERING AROUND ALOFT IN THE MORNING
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH AROUND 30-40%. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
QPF FOOTPRINT DUE TO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AXIS
THAT MAY BRING ADDITIONALLY RAINFALL UP TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR, BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT TOTALS IN THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
WITH AND REMAINING SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND COOLER
WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT, THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGF LESS
THAN WEDNESDAY REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE LOW-70S
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LATE THIS WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS (DEGC) ACROSS THE AREA, AROUND THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS IS ALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST US AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS LATER INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH DAY-TO-DAY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL REACH IN WESTERN NY, BUT KBUF AND KIAG COULD SEE PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING. KJHW AND TERMINALS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, WITH
NORTHEASTERLIES RAMPING UP LATER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THEN REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH A PORTION OF FRIDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MIGHT BE NEED FROM THE RIPLEY TO
DUNKIRK PORTION OF OUR LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AT SOME POINT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS/TMA
SHORT TERM...BROTHERS
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...BROTHERS/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
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