666
FXUS61 KBUF 310707
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY, BRINGING BENEFICIAL SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A LARGE
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE FINISH OF THE
WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKE ERIE BASIN AS OF
THIS WRITING, WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD BRINGING A PERIOD
OF BENEFICIAL SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
POSITIONED ITSELF JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER. MOST OF THE BETTER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HEAVIER CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER, LOWER GENESEE VALLEY, TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION, BUT WILL TAPER
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE AREA. WITH ALL
THIS IN MIND, HAVE CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE QPF FOOTPRINT,
AS WELL AS RAISED AMOUNTS A BIT MORE, WHICH IS GOOD NEWS WITH THE
DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, STILL
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER,
MAY NOW SEE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND LOWER GENESEE VALLEY, WITH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
WILL REALLY 'FEEL' THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS TODAY, WITH MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, HOWEVER TERRAIN AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S
WITH PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A
COMFORTABLE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE LONG ADVERTISED COOL DOWN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS BY SATURDAY. NIGHTS WILL BE COOL IN
THE DRY AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS, WITH 40S ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SOME
MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND FROM THE LAKES BY WEDNESDAY, BUT
COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SPARSE, IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. DRY
SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING IMPACTS TO AGRICULTURE AND GARDENS.
THE SHORT STRETCH OF COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLED OUT AS EXPECTED,
AS EVIDENCED BY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEING OBSERVED AT ALL
TERMINALS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS JUST GETTING INTO PORTIONS OF
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. EXPECT COVERAGE AND SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH JUST A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (KART). MAINLY VFR/LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION, BECOMING MORE PREVALENT TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN FAIRLY PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
BRIEF IFR/LIFR REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE SOME BETTER INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW SOME STRONGER CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP, BEST CHANCE TOWARD THE NY/PA LINE. FURTHER NORTH, EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY
MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN RAPIDLY TAPERING OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW VFR RANGE
AT WORST. VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS THE TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY, RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
NORTHEASTERLIES RAMPING UP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS OF THIS
WRITING, AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH A PORTION OF FRIDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEED FROM THE RIPLEY TO
DUNKIRK PORTION OF OUR LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AT SOME POINT
TODAY OR TONIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/TMA
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