565
FXUS61 KBUF 311803
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
203 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP EAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, USHERING OUT THE RAIN AND ALLOWING
DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER, EXPECT
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE BACK EDGE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. DRIVING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
IS A CULMINATION OF A LOW-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING LAKE
ERIE, ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY SETTLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND (JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD). AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PASS EAST, EXPECT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOW TO
FOLLOW, STRIPPING THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING, THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO) TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY.
MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES, BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. AS THIS SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, EXPECT A DRYING TREND TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER REMAINING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE
A FEW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
VALLEYS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DUE TO AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES. OTHERWISE, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
OVERHEAD, A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION,
SUPPORTING COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EXIT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND,
SUPPORTING BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS BEING SAID, EXPECT SUNNY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
AFTER STARTING THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, SOME WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION SUPPORTING HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TOWARDS
NORMAL RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, SUPPORTING AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THUS RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS OF
DRY TIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND A MODEST RETURN OF SOME LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SHOULD
NOTE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE IF IT
SHOULD COME INTO FRUITION.
OTHERWISE, THE DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 18Z, WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW
YORK AND INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION. DRIVING THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, IS A CULMINATION OF A LOW-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING LAKE ERIE, ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND (JUST SOUTH OF CAPE
COD). DESPITE THE LIGHT RAIN, MOSTLY VFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER (CLOSE TO THE
PA STATE LINE) WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS
WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW SUIT WITH CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO VFR.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LINGERING SURFACE
MOISTURE, SOME VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING).
MARINE
BRISK NORTHEASTERLIES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT. THE FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, SUPPORTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO AND EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM THE RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK
PORTION OF OUR LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ001>004.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
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