959
FXUS61 KBUF 312336
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
736 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO RETURN.
IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER, EXPECT COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
EXPECT A DRYING TREND TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER REMAINING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE A FEW
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DUE TO AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES. OTHERWISE, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVERHEAD, A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION, SUPPORTING
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EXIT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND,
SUPPORTING BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS BEING SAID, EXPECT SUNNY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
AFTER STARTING THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, SOME WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION SUPPORTING HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TOWARDS
NORMAL RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, SUPPORTING AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THUS RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS OF
DRY TIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND A MODEST RETURN OF SOME LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SHOULD
NOTE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE IF IT
SHOULD COME INTO FRUITION.
OTHERWISE, THE DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE, SOME VALLEY FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING).
MARINE
FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, SUPPORTING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.
CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT ON THE EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ/TMA
NEAR TERM...EAJ/TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ/TMA
MARINE...EAJ/TMA
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