685
FXUS61 KBUF 010649
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
249 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SPRAWLING AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THAT WILL
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO FINISH THE
WORK WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, A DRY AIRMASS, AND ONLY A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE (GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS) WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THESE ARE ALSO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION
OF LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
OTHERWISE, A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING IDEAL MID-SUMMER
WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON, MAY ACTUALLY 'FEEL' A BIT
'COOL' IN THE SHADE BY EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS.
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
THOSE TRADITIONAL COOLER SPOTS LIKELY EVEN COOLER. THE FORMATION OF
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY, WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS.
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR COOL NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A VERY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND THEN TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY LATE IN THE WEEK, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND ASSOCIATED GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING, BUT COVERAGE OF THESE WILL BE
SPARSE, IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALL WEEK, BUT NIGHTS WILL
STAY RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS NEAR AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THAT WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS (POSSIBLY IMPACTING JAMESTOWN AROUND THE 8Z TO
12Z TIMEFRAME). OTHERWISE, LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING).
MARINE
FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A PORTION OF TODAY,
SUPPORTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES
OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOWER ON LAKE ERIE.
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP AT TIMES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ042>044.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page