460
FXUS61 KBUF 011100
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
700 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SPRAWLING AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THAT WILL
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO FINISH THE
WORK WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING IDEAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
COMBINING WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THIS
AFTERNOON, MAY ACTUALLY 'FEEL' A BIT 'COOL' IN SHADED AREAS BY EARLY
AUGUST STANDARDS.
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
THOSE TRADITIONAL COOLER SPOTS LIKELY EVEN COOLER. THE FORMATION OF
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY, WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS.
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR COOL NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A VERY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND THEN TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY LATE IN THE WEEK, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND ASSOCIATED GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING, BUT COVERAGE OF THESE WILL BE
SPARSE, IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALL WEEK, BUT NIGHTS WILL
STAY RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS NEAR AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THIS MORNING THAT WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE, LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION AGAIN WILL BE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING).
MARINE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LESSEN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO, THUS ALL
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED, ALTHOUGH CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AND ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN-SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK PROVIDING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND NO MORE THAN SOME LIGHT CHOP
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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