803
FXUS61 KBUF 011745
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND, AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL SETTLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER A COOL START WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, A GRADUAL DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND WILL SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BY SUNDAY AND LAST INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN PLENTY OF DRY
TIME.
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP LIKE A ROCK WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION, AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.
GIVEN THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES, FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY
AND NIGHT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND SATURDAY, IS
SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
START OF AUGUST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FROM FROM
THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER, THE GRADUAL DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE, FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY LATE IN THE WEEK,
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND ASSOCIATED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING, BUT COVERAGE OF THESE WILL
BE SPARSE, IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.
OTHERWISE, THE DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DESPITE THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION DUE TO BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST-
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS
AND DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD PROMOTING EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH LOCALIZED VALLEY
FOG/ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT (AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING).
MARINE
NORTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, PROMOTING CALM WINDS.
OVERALL, THE CHOPPY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY
BEFORE BECOMING CALM TONIGHT. CALM CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
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