419
FXUS61 KBUF 020945
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
545 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO
MIDSUMMER HEAT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEYOND WITH DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
PREVENT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THE WHOLE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGH TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH UPPER 40S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGES WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE HIGH AND HOW
THAT WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE
EXPANDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH THEN SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, BUT
IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY, POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN NY. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS
GOING FORWARD.
OTHERWISE, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES C WHILE A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DAY-TO-
DAY WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE, HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS ONLY RISING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION (NEAR 60
LAKESHORES), HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE TOLERABLE DESPITE THE
WARM AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE OVERNIGHTS MORE BEARABLE
WITH A FAIRLY SIZABLE DAILY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WASHES OUT AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD ALLOWING
ANOTHER FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
EAST OF JAMES BAY TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE
TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK WHILE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR AREA.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH, WEAK NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW
TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE AND OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE, THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WOULD BE PRIMARILY TARGETED AROUND
THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS, AND MAINLY ALONG AND INLAND OF ANY
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THAT DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH WARM DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. GOOD NEWS IS HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE TOLERABLE,
ALLOWING FOR A DECENT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGING IN THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN STILL ABLE TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST NIGHTS.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL
PRODUCE LOCAL IFR THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THIS LIMITED IN SCOPE. THE FOG WILL STAY MAINLY EAST OF KJHW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH VFR PREVAILING. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH VFR BASES. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN
KEEP ANY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
RIVER VALLEYS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG AND IFR
POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
MARINE
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AND WAVES
MINIMAL ACROSS MOST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO, WITH LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BRINGING ONSHORE WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.
THE LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL COMBINE WITH SOME SYNOPTIC GRADIENT
TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS AND A MODERATE CHOP TO THE NORTHEAST END OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS
AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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