252
FXUS61 KBUF 160546
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
146 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
WARM AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS STRONG SFC
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY TRANSLATES SOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THOUGH A GENTLE
ONSHORE BREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TYPICAL
DIURNAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS THESE WINDS DECOUPLE UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT, VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES HOTTER WITH MORE SPOTS
ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN HITTING THE LOW 90S. EVEN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE'S TYPICALLY HIGH BIASED TDS HOWEVER, HUMIDITY LEVELS
APPEAR TOO LOW FOR ANY AREAS TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY
WILL AMPLIFY SOME AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NEW
ENGLAND AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY...WITH ITS ATTENDANT ELONGATED/SOMEWHAT WAVY COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN (PWATS CLIMBING
TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES) ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO BRIEFLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS BEING SAID...THE RELATIVELY
WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE BETTER FORCING WILL KEEP THIS
SYSTEM FROM PROVIDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FROM THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY ONLY TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL OFF
INTO THE COMFORTABLE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN
AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE
MID-UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY THEN MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE BRIEFLY AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OWING TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
HOWEVER WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH RESPECT TO
ITS STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK HAVE KEPT SHOWER PROBABILITIES IN
THE CHANCE (30-50% RANGE)...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE
CURRENTLY INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
THEN BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES...COOLER WEATHER (WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S)
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GRADUAL DAY-TO-DAY WARMING
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION CONSEQUENTLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE VALLEY FOG MAY POSE A RISK OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KJHW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WITH LAKE BREEZES PRODUCING A GENTLE
BREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10KTS.
SHOWERS MAY APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
ON LAKE ERIE, GENTLE ONSHORE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY
CAUSE A SLIGHT CHOP AT TIMES THOUGH OTHERWISE CALM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON BOTH LAKES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES
MAY BECOME HIGH ENOUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING TO NEED SCA,
ESPECIALLY FOR LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...PP/SW
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