803
FXUS61 KBUF 160638
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED NEAR INTERSTATE 90 EAST OF ROCHESTER
OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WITH LAKE BREEZES CREATING A GENTLE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
WEAK TROUGHING AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT IN CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING, REACHING WESTERN
NY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY AND THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN
REGARDS TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TIME OF ARRIVAL LATE
TONIGHT BUT CONSENSUS HAS POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARRIVING AFTER 3AM.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WAVY COLD FRONT WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
HELP INCREASE FORCING SOME, BUT THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS WITH
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY, BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES (INTERIOR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO NORTHERN FINGER LAKES
AREA). THESE AREAS WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE
LATER TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL INCREASE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50". THIS WILL ALSO
CREATE A MORE HUMID FEEL TO THE TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE ON TIMING OF THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ON
SUNDAY, SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL TAKE A ESE TRACK, SIMILAR
TO WHAT THE SFC HIGH DID THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE REGION, JUST A
BIT QUICKER. THE HIGH WILL TRACK FROM THE ON/QC BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT
TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF QC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO
MID 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH SOME
MID 70S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL INTO MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING FROM NEAR 70 TO NEAR 80 FROM THE
HIGHER TO LOWER ELEVATIONS RESPECTIVELY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE BRIEFLY AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OWING TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
HOWEVER WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH RESPECT TO
ITS STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK HAVE KEPT SHOWER PROBABILITIES IN
THE CHANCE (30-50% RANGE)...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE
CURRENTLY INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
THEN BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES...COOLER WEATHER (WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S)
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GRADUAL DAY-TO-DAY WARMING
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION CONSEQUENTLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE VALLEY FOG MAY POSE A RISK OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KJHW. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KROC EARLY THIS
MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT, WITH LAKE BREEZES PRODUCING A GENTLE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 KTS.
SHOWERS MAY APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO LOW-END VFR TO MVFR BY 12Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE DAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY.
GENTLE ONSHORE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY CAUSE A SLIGHT
CHOP AT TIMES THOUGH OTHERWISE CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON BOTH LAKES STARTING TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
BECOME HIGH ENOUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING TO NEED SCA,
ESPECIALLY FOR LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/PP
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