953  
FXUS61 KBUF 161712  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
112 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.  
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH  
MID-WEEK BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING, REACHING WESTERN  
NEW YORK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE  
APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL  
BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS TO FAR WESTERN  
NEW YORK AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY STARTING LATE TONIGHT.  
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ARRIVAL TIME AFTER 3 AM.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD  
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT  
EXITS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL TAKE A ESE TRACK,  
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE SFC HIGH DID THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE  
REGION, JUST A BIT QUICKER. THE HIGH WILL TRACK FROM THE ON/QC  
BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF QC AND THE  
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LATE  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.  
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED  
TO REACH FROM NEAR 70 TO NEAR 80 FROM THE HIGHER TO LOWER  
ELEVATIONS RESPECTIVELY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE BRIEFLY AMPLIFYING  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN  
PERIPHERY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OWING TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...  
HOWEVER WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH RESPECT TO  
ITS STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK HAVE KEPT SHOWER PROBABILITIES IN  
THE CHANCE (30-50% RANGE)...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE  
CURRENTLY INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. DRY WEATHER SHOULD  
THEN BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
FRIDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING. WITH RESPECT TO  
TEMPERATURES...COOLER WEATHER (WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S)  
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GRADUAL DAY-TO-DAY WARMING  
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS...AND THE  
LARGE-SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION CONSEQUENTLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT (AFTER  
08Z) WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY  
BRIEFLY DROP TO LOW-END VFR TO MVFR SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY...VFR.  
 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.  
 
WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY  
EARLY IN THE DAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THURSDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS AND  
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON BOTH LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO SUNDAY AS A COLD  
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND  
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS, HIGHEST ON LAKE  
ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON LAKE  
ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ON LAKE ERIE WEST  
OF DUNKIRK.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA  
NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA  
SHORT TERM...SW  
LONG TERM...JJR  
AVIATION...HSK/TMA  
MARINE...TMA  
 
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